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Monday, June 27, 2011

Select Investment CPO or Gold?

Two commodities is currently the world's attention, namely crude palm oil (crude palm oil / CPO) and gold. World gold price is currently at the level of U.S. $ 1,372 per troy ounce.

This price increase occurred about 30 percent in the past year. "Analysts estimate the price of gold will be the range of U.S. $ 1,450 per troy ounce, until the end of this year," said CEO Indonesia Commodity and Derivatives Exchange Megain VIVAnews Widjaja when contacted in Jakarta.

Data U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), shows that gold production rose 2.26 tons to 2350 tons in 2009. This production, 9.6 percent below its peak in 2001.

Thomas Chaize, observers of gold as quoted VIVAnews, observed that the decline in production has made the price of gold soared. Within a decade, gold prices rose from U.S. $ 275 troy ounces (1 troy ounce equals 31.1 grams) to over U.S. $ 1,300 this month.

Meanwhile, world crude palm oil prices now reaching the level of U.S. $ 890 per ton. "Until the end of the year, the price will be the range U.S. $ 900-950 per tonne," said Nico Omer Jonckheere, vice president of PT Valbury Asia Securities in Jakarta.

That is, there is an increase of about 40.11 percent compared to the average CPO price in the last year (2009), namely at the level of U.S. $ 678 per ton. That value is much higher than expectations of Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki), which predicts only an increase of 12 percent.

The price increase is also due to the imbalance between demand and availability of goods for the CPO.

oil palm plantation

OSK Investment Research increase target price earnings ratio (PER) for shares of the estates of 15 times to 18 times for 2011.

The lack of world palm oil production can not be separated, because of erratic weather, high rainfall, as well as the threat of hurricane La Nina. Impact, the price continues to soar and margins earned the CPO-based company becomes larger.

This condition is recognized some market participants as a condition of positive (bullish). "Commodities Indonesia bullish until the year 2011," said Director of Ferry Budiman Tanja Ciptadana Securities.

While Megian Widjaja rate, this condition should be momentum to increase the investment portfolio. "Although the composite share price index in Indonesia Stock Exchange is also good, it's good as an investment portfolio differentiation, divert some of the commodities," he said.

Gold, he continued, has better stability than other types of investments. Indonesia Data Commodity and Derivatives Exchange shows, the volatility of gold in one year by 18.7 percent. "This is causing China switches (switch) of investment into gold," said Megian. Meanwhile, the yield of gold in two years by 27-30 percent.

What about the CPO? According Megian, with Rp7.235 per kilogram price for delivery in October, the CPO has the highest investment return of 13.75 percent. Meanwhile, the same period last year, the return on investment CPO minus 20 percent. So, select the CPO or gold?


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