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Thursday, March 10, 2011


The impact of global warming

The scientists used computer models of temperature, precipitation patterns, and circulation of the atmosphere to study global warming. Based on this model, scientists have made several forecasts about the impact of global warming on weather, higher sea levels, coastal, agricultural, wildlife and human health.

Start Climate Unstable

Scientists predict that during global warming, the northern regions of the North Hemisphere (Northern Hemisphere) will heat up more than other regions on Earth. As a result, icebergs will melt and the mainland will shrink. Will be less ice will float in the waters of the North. Areas that previously experienced light snow, probably will not experience it again. In the mountains in subtropical areas, snow-covered part will be getting less and is quicker to melt. Planting season will be longer in some areas. Temperatures in the winter and at night would tend to increase.

Warmer regions will become more humid as more water evaporates from the oceans. Scientists do not yet quite sure whether it will actually increase the moisture or reduce the warming even further. This is because water vapor is a greenhouse gas, so that its presence will increase the insulation effect on the atmosphere. However, more moisture will also form more clouds, which would reflect sunlight back into space, where it will reduce the heating process (see the water cycle). High humidity will increase rainfall, on average, about 1 percent for each degree Fahrenheit warming (Rainfall in the world has increased by 1 percent in the last hundred years.) Storms will become more frequent. In addition, the water will evaporate more quickly from the soil. As a result, some areas will become drier than before. Winds will blow harder and perhaps with a different pattern. Cyclonic storm (hurricane) that obtain power from the evaporation of water, will be larger. Contrary to the warming that occurred, some very cold period will probably occur. Weather patterns become more unpredictable and extreme.

Increased sea level

As the atmosphere warms, the ocean surface layer will also be warm, so the volume will expand and raise the sea level. Warming will also melt much glacier ice, especially around Greenland, which further increase the volume of water in the sea. Sea level worldwide has risen 10-25 centimeters (40-10 inches) during the 20th century, and IPCC scientists predict further rise of 9-88 cm (4-35 inches) in the 21st century.

Changes in sea level will greatly affect the life in coastal areas. Increase of 100 cm (40 inches) would sink the Dutch region of 6 percent, 17.5 percent area of ​​Bangladesh, and many islands. Erosion of cliffs, beaches, and dunes will increase. When the high seas to reach the mouth of the river, flooding due to the tide will rise on the mainland. Rich countries will spend huge amounts of money to protect their shorelines, while poor countries may simply evacuate from coastal areas.

Even a modest rise in sea level will greatly change coastal ecosystems. Increase of 50 cm (20 inches) will immerse half of the coastal marshes in the United States. New marshes will also be formed, but not in urban areas and areas that have been built. This sea-level rise will cover much of the Florida Everglades.

Global temperatures tend to increase

One might assume that a warmer Earth would produce more food than ever before, but it is actually not the same in some places. Southern Canada, for example, may benefit from higher rainfall and more length of the planting period. On the other hand, semi-arid tropical agricultural land in some parts of Africa may not be able to grow. Desert agricultural areas that use irrigation water from distant mountains may suffer if the snowpack (a collection of snow) winter, which serves as a natural reservoir, will melt before the peak months of planting. Food crops and forest insect and can experience a more severe disease.

Ecological disturbance

Animals and plants into sentient beings that are difficult to avoid the effects of warming because most of the land has been controlled by humans. In global warming, animals tend to migrate toward the poles or up mountains. Plants will change the direction of its growth, finding new areas because of the length of habitat becomes too warm. However, human development will prevent this movement. Species that migrate to the north or south blocked by the cities or agricultural lands may be dead. Some types of species that are not able to quickly move toward the poles may also be destroyed.

Social and political impact

Changes in weather and ocean can lead to the emergence of diseases associated with heat (heat stroke) and death. Hot temperatures can also lead to crop failure that would arise from hunger and malnutrition. Changes in extreme weather and sea level rise due to melting Arctic ice cap can cause diseases that are associated with natural disasters (floods, hurricanes and fires) and death due to trauma. Incidence of natural disasters are usually accompanied by movements of people into refugee camps where disease often appear, such as: diarrhea, malnutrition, micronutrient deficiencies, psychological trauma, skin diseases, and others.

Shift in the ecosystem can make an impact on the spread of disease through water (waterborne diseases) as well as the spread of disease through vector (vector-borne diseases). As the increasing incidence of dengue fever since the emergence of space (ecosystem), new to these mosquitoes breed. With climate change these adamya then there are several species of disease vectors (Aedes Aegipty eq), viruses, bacteria, plasmodium become more resistant to certain drugs that his target is the organism. Besides it can be predicted that there are some species that would naturally selected or extinct due to changes in these extreme ecosystems. This will also affect climate change (Climate change) that could affect the increase in cases of certain diseases such as ARI (drought / forest fires, DHF Linkages with the rainy season is uncertain)

Gradient Environmental pollution caused by waste in the river also contributes to waterborne diseases and vector-borne disease. Coupled with the results of air pollution emissions of gases that are not controlled factory will further contribute to respiratory illnesses like asthma, allergies, coccidiodomycosis, chronic heart and lung disease, and others.

The debate about global warming

Not all scientists agree on the circumstances and consequences of global warming. Some analysts still question whether the temperature is really rising. Others acknowledge the changes that have occurred but denied that it was too early to make predictions about the circumstances in the future. Such criticism could also argue the evidence shows the human contribution to global warming by arguing that the natural cycle can also increase the temperature. They also demonstrate the facts that the continuous heating can be advantageous in some areas.

The scientists who question global warming tends to show three differences between the prediction model is still questionable global warming with actual behaviors that occur on the climate. First, warming tends to stop for three decades in the mid-20th century; even some cooling time before rising again in the 1970's. Second, the total warming during the 20th century only about half of that predicted by the model. Third, the troposphere, the lowest atmospheric layer, does not heat up as fast as the model predictions. However, the proponents of global warming sure to answer two of the three questions.

Lack of heating in the middle of the century due to the large spread particulate air pollution-particulates, especially sulfates, into the atmosphere. These particulates, also known as aerosols, reflect some sunlight back into space. Sustainable heating eventually overcome this effect, partly because of the control of air pollution that causes become a cleaner.

State of global warming since 1900 which was not as predicted due to a large heat absorption by the oceans. Scientists have long predicted this but do not have enough data to prove it. In 2000, U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) returns a new analysis of water temperature as measured by observers around the world during the last 50 years. The measurement results showed a warming trend: the world of sea temperature in 1998 is higher 0.2 degrees Celsius (0.3 degrees Fahrenheit) than the average temperatures for the past 50 years, but there was little change significantly.

The third question is still confusing. Satellite detects less warming in the troposphere compared to model predictions. According to some critics, the reading of the atmosphere is right, while measurements of the surface of the Earth's atmosphere can not be trusted. In January 2000, a panel appointed by the National Academy of Sciences to discuss this issue acknowledged that warming of the Earth's surface can not be doubted. However, measurements of lower troposphere of the model predictions can not be explained clearly.

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