Where now for Egypt and the region?

THE traffic in Cairo is returning to normal—hopelessly log-jammed—as protesters have begun to drift away from Tahrir Square, the scene of great celebrations since the announcement that Hosni Mubarak, Egypt's president, had stepped down on February 11th. But it remains unclear what the military, now in charge, intends to do.

The Supreme Military Council, the body that deposed Mr Mubarak, is trying to clarify things, communiqué by communiqué. It has issued two announcements this week. The first, communiqué number five, addressed the question of the government. While the constitution has been suspended and both houses of parliament dissolved, the current cabinet—headed by the former air force chief, Ahmed Shafiq—will continue to run the country's day-to-day affairs. In his capacity as head of the military council, the minister of defence, Muhammad Tantawi, a 75-year-old general long loyal to Mr Mubarak, will be the de facto head of state. Mr Tantawi and his colleagues will continue to rule by decree while amendments to the constitution are prepared (they will be submitted to a public referendum within two months) until new elections are held in six months' time.

More details are slowly emerging. A committee charged with reviewing the constitution has been appointed, with a prominent legal scholar, Tariq al-Bishri, at its head. Mr al-Bishri, who is sometimes described as an Islamist thinker, is a widely respected figure whose call for civil disobedience several years ago inspired protesters. He will be joined by other constitutional experts, and, surprisingly, a former MP from the Muslim Brotherhood.

Less certain is what will happen to the current cabinet. Some ministers are deeply unpopular; even their own employees are urging their removal. A few more heads are likely to fall, not only at ministries but among the managers of state companies, including banks, insurance firms and factories. A similar clean-up has started among Cairo’s security chiefs. That may spread to the governors who control Egypt’s 29 provinces.

This has been prompted in part by a wave of strikes that has started across the country, combining revolutionary fervour with more practical concerns: salary increases, making temporary contracts permanent. Many also ask that bosses close to the former regime be removed. The military has grumbled about the strikes, and its sixth communiqué urged protestors to return to work. But the unrest looks set to continue, and the army—already stretched by the collapse of civilian security forces—may not be able to do much about it.

In the meantime, the military has begun to reach out to opposition forces, notably the young protestors who occupied Cairo’s Tahrir Square for 18 days. Members of this group met with two generals, reported to be sympathetic to their concerns, who promised a swift transition to civilian government though provided few details. The army, for now, is advancing a transition plan without much consultation with Egypt’s political forces. It is anxious for Egypt to get back to something approaching normal. It may also want to fade into the background as much as possible and let expendable ministers handle the opposition and the public’s demands.

Looking around the rest of the Middle East, Egyptians might well wonder if their revolution is spreading. Algeria, Bahrain and Yemen have already seen protests, which have been violently suppressed. More are now promised. Activists in Libya have declared Thursday to be their "day of rage," while in Morocco a campaign for constitutional reform and a war on corruption will be launched at the end of this week.

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